A westerly weather system that entered Pakistan on Saturday is set to bring rain, windstorms and thunderstorms to the upper and central parts of the country until October 15, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said in a forecast issued on Friday. The system is expected to move across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Islamabad, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan in phases, with isolated hailstorms, a chance of light snowfall over high mountains and a fall in daytime temperatures of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius. Sindh and most of Balochistan are expected to stay mainly hot and dry.
Where the rain is expected
The Met Office said Khyber Pakhtunkhwa faces the longest spell, with rain, wind and thunder likely from October 10 to 15 in districts including Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Shangla, Battagram, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Buner and Malakand. Bajaur, Mohmand, Kohat, Peshawar, Charsadda, Nowshera, Mardan, Swabi, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, Hangu, Lakki Marwat, Karak, Bannu, Dera Ismail Khan and Waziristan are also on the list, with hail possible at isolated places.
In Kashmir, showers and thunderstorms are expected at isolated places including the Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber and Mirpur during the same period. Gilgit-Baltistan districts such as Diamer, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Ghanche and Shigar may also receive rain, while light snowfall is possible over high peaks and glaciers.
Punjab and Islamabad windows
For Punjab and the federal capital, the department identified two main windows. Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Murree, the Galliyat area, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Wazirabad, Lahore, Kasur, Sheikhupura, Sialkot and Narowal are likely to see rain on October 10 and 11 and again on October 13 and 14, with occasional gaps. Mianwali, Khushab, Bhakkar, Sargodha, Jhang, Toba Tek Singh and Faisalabad are included in the same forecast.
Southern Punjab is expected to receive showers on October 10 and 11 and on October 13 in places such as Multan, Layyah, Dera Ghazi Khan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Sahiwal, Okara, Pakpattan and Khanewal. In Balochistan, isolated rain is forecast in Zhob, Barkhan and Musakhel on October 10, 11 and 13, while Sindh is expected to remain hot and dry.
The change will be felt most in districts that are also marking the season for disaster awareness this week, and readers can follow related coverage under Pakistan national news coverage for verified updates from the field.
Damage risk and official advice
The Met Office warned that strong winds, hail and lightning could damage weak structures, electric poles, billboards, vehicles and solar panels, and said hail could harm standing crops in the plains. Farmers were advised to keep the forecast in view while planning crop activity, and all concerned authorities were asked to stay vigilant and take preventive measures during the period.
The warning follows a difficult few months for flood hit areas, a context covered in our report on National Resilience Day commemorations across Pakistan, where communities reviewed preparedness and early warning systems. Local administrations in the northern districts usually respond to such forecasts by checking drainage channels, securing hoardings and alerting rescue teams in hilly areas prone to landslides.
What changes for daily life
Commuters in Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore should expect wet roads during the two rain windows, while travellers heading to Murree, the Galliyat region and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa should check road conditions before departure. The expected temperature drop may bring relief after weeks of warm afternoons, but the same system can briefly worsen air quality before rain clears the air.
The forecast caps a busy economic week in which fuel costs were also revised, as detailed in our coverage of the petrol price in Pakistan today for October 10. Households watching household budgets can also track the USD to PKR exchange rate today on our dedicated currency page.
The PMD said the westerly wave is likely to weaken after October 15, after which dry weather is expected to return to most parts of the country. District administrations have been advised to remain on alert until the system passes, particularly in areas where hail and strong gusts could affect harvest activity and road movement.
