Petrol got cheaper four days in a row, yet the weekly shopping basket still got dearer. The Sensitive Price Indicator, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics measure of 51 essential items, rose 0.29 percent in the week ended 5 November 2026, reaching 374.61 points from 373.51 a week earlier. On a yearly basis it stood 12.31 percent higher. The driver was not fuel. It was food, led by tomatoes, up 54.18 percent in a single week, and cooking gas, which has more than doubled in a year.
The petrol paradox
The fuel numbers look like relief. Petrol fell 4.20 percent during the week and diesel fell 2.97 percent. Petrol fell Rs25.32 in four days to Rs352.59 a litre, and diesel fell Rs20.71 to Rs382.25 over the same stretch. Yet the basket rose anyway, because the items that went up mattered more to household spending than the items that went down.
Of the 51 items the Bureau tracks across 50 markets in 17 cities, 21 became dearer during the week, 10 became cheaper and 20 did not move. The falls were narrow: gram pulse, bananas, onions, chicken, sugar and wheat flour all eased by less than 1.1 percent. The rises were concentrated in the foods people buy every day: tomatoes up 54.18 percent, LPG up 3.72 percent, potatoes up 2.07 percent, eggs up 1.17 percent, garlic up 1.06 percent and firewood up 1.01 percent.
Tomatoes have doubled in two weeks
No item moved like tomatoes. A week earlier they had already jumped 34.91 percent, taking the national average from Rs93.17 a kilo to Rs125.70. This week’s 54.18 percent rise comes on top of that, putting the average near Rs194 a kilo, more than double what it was two weeks ago. On a yearly basis tomatoes are up 78.89 percent.
The contrast with potatoes shows how uneven the pressure is. Potatoes rose 2.07 percent this week, yet they are still 37.24 percent cheaper than a year ago. Eggs rose 1.17 percent in the week but are 27.59 percent cheaper than last year, and sugar is 25.03 percent cheaper than a year ago.
LPG has more than doubled in a year
LPG climbed 3.72 percent this week and stands 114.88 percent higher than a year ago, the biggest annual rise in the whole basket. LPG is the cooking fuel for households without a piped gas connection, and the same fuel powers many of the rickshaws on the road, which is why rickshaw drivers cutting meals as LPG costs bite has become a familiar story in recent weeks.
Electricity tells a similar story. Charges for the lowest consumption slab are 52.38 percent higher than a year ago, the second largest annual rise after LPG. Wheat flour is up 33.95 percent on the year and chicken 31.81 percent. Diesel is up 39.27 percent and petrol 36.34 percent over the year, so even the fuel that fell this week is still far dearer than it was last November.
The poorest paid the most
The split by income group runs in a straight line. The poorest group, households spending up to Rs17,732 a month, saw prices rise 0.86 percent in the week, to 361.00 points from 357.92. The next group rose 0.70 percent, then 0.52 percent, then 0.40 percent, and the richest group, spending above Rs44,175 a month, rose only 0.10 percent. The poorest households faced a weekly rise more than eight times the richest.
That is a reversal of last week, when every group saw prices fall and the richest fell furthest, down 0.41 percent, while the poorest fell only 0.07 percent. The pattern is consistent: when prices fall, the poorest gain least, and when they rise, the poorest lose most, because low income households spend a far larger share of their money on the foods and fuels that rose this week.
What to watch next
Three tests will show whether this week was a blip or a turn. The first is the weekly rate itself. Last week it fell 0.35 percent; this week it rose 0.29 percent, a swing of 0.64 points, and the yearly rate accelerated from 11.32 percent to 12.31 percent. The next reading, due on 12 November, will show whether the rise holds.
The second is tomatoes. Two weeks of rises of 34.91 percent and 54.18 percent point to a supply problem rather than ordinary seasonal movement, and the price will only settle when new supply reaches the markets. The third is winter demand for LPG, which rises as the weather cools. A USD to PKR exchange rate today check also matters, because a weaker rupee raises the cost of imported fuel and gas. For now the scoreboard is simple: fuel relief arrived at the pump, but it did not reach the kitchen. Readers can follow more business and economy news from Pakistan as the week develops.
