QatarEnergy has extended its LNG force majeure to December 29, replacing the November 5 deadline Pakistan’s planners were working to. The News reported on October 31 that the federal petroleum minister confirmed the extension to the end of December, while the government plans 10 cargoes for December and January against a requirement of 20. Households get priority under the winter plan, so industry, power and CNG face the cuts first if the cargoes do not arrive.
What changed: December 29 replaces November 5
Reuters reported on October 27 and 28 that QatarEnergy had extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to the end of December 2026. Italian importer Edison confirmed the suspension, in force since April 2026, would run to the end of the year, and clients in Pakistan and Bangladesh were informed of the same extension. The disruption follows the Iran war that began in late February and the attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex in March.
The new date kills the last planning assumption. Earlier in October, The News reported that the force majeure for Pakistan had been extended to November 4, and its October 29 editorial cited November 5. Both dates are now superseded.
The half winter maths: 10 cargoes for 20 needed
The government plans to arrange 10 LNG cargoes for the two peak winter months against an estimated requirement of 20, nine in December and 11 in January, The News reported. Even if every one of the 10 arrives on time, 10 cargoes are still missing before any curtailment decision is taken.
Last winter, Pakistan imported 36 LNG cargoes, of which 35 came from Qatar. Petroleum Division figures reported in October put arrivals under the PSO arrangement at about 10 cargoes between March and September 2026, against 40 that were not delivered under force majeure. Winter makes this shortage binding, because demand peaks exactly when term supply is suspended.
The wider plan seeks 24 cargoes on the Sui Northern network, including two contingency cargoes, but it is still awaiting Cabinet Committee on Energy approval.
Two demand numbers, one squeeze
Senior officials of the Sui gas companies told The News that household gas demand in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could jump from 500 million cubic feet per day to 1,500 million cubic feet per day during December and January, while Sindh and Balochistan domestic demand is projected to double from 300 to 600. The winter plan’s network totals are lower because they cover the whole networks: Sui Northern demand rising from about 550 to 1,100, and Sui Southern from 300 to 500. Demand roughly doubles or triples just as contracted supply stops.
Under the proposed plan, domestic consumers stay first in line, and supplies to industry, captive power plants, fertiliser units and CNG stations may be curtailed if cargoes do not arrive. The plan warns of about 109,000 tonnes of urea output lost a month if fertiliser units shut. Officials warned in October that more households would turn to LPG cylinders if the gap widens, with an 11.8 kilogram cylinder possibly rising to Rs7,000 or more, which is why the LPG price power shift that moved pricing from OGRA to state firms matters as the fallback market.
What it costs, and who pays first
OilPrice reported that Pakistan will have to pay more than 1 billion dollars to secure LNG for the winter months, because the government plans to import 10 cargoes from the spot market at about double its long term contract price. October reporting put spot LNG at 28 to 30 dollars per MMBtu, with a single cargo costing about 100 million dollars. In Europe, the Dutch TTF benchmark reached 108.51 dollars per megawatt hour, its highest since the 2022 energy crisis.
It reaches bills through the tariff system, and the OGRA quarterly gas price bill that would review gas prices every three months would pass any imported gas cost change through faster than the current half yearly cycle. The wider fuel bill is already moving: diesel crossing Rs400 a litre on October 30 raised transport and farm costs in the same week.
Three tests before December
First, watch November 4 and 5. If no Qatari cargo resumes, December 29 becomes the date every plan must use. Second, watch the spot tenders. Are the 10 cargoes actually awarded, at what delivered price, and do the proposed SOCAR, Shell and Oman Trading cargoes materialise beyond the plan document? Third, watch the Cabinet Committee on Energy. Is the winter plan approved, with a published curtailment order, and does the OGRA quarterly mechanism change how fast any spot premium reaches household bills? For the latest more business and economy news from Pakistan, the number to track is 10 against 20.
